ID ZONE BEST BUY Zebra Black Monochrome Ribbon Black monochrome 1000 images Zebra part number 800015-101 For use with the following Zebra card printers: P300 P300F P310F P310i P310C P320i P330iP330m P400 P420C P420i P430i P500 P520C P520i P600 P720C TrueColours Monochrome Resin Ribbon Zebra TrueColours monochrome resin ribbons use thermal transfer printing technology, a process by which a heated printhead is used to transfer a digitized image from the ribbon to the surface of the card. Monochrome ribbons can be used on all Zebra card printers. They are available in a variety of colors including black, red, green, blue, gold, silver, white and scratch-off gray. Zebra Ribbon Storage Guidelines

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Huge lot of wedding accessories Here are a combined lot of our customers favorites. These are everything youll need to decorate a table and then some. Youve got the plenty of materials for favor making, a ring pillow, place-card holders, flowers to decorate the table, bottle open for your champagne, and items to decorate the centerpiece. If bought separately, all these items will cost a fortune, dont miss the opportunity to get all these unique items at a low bundle price. Heres a list of all the included item. 8″ Ring Pillow 1 pc Double Heart Stopper 1 pc 6′ Silk Rose Garland-Silver 1 pc Clear Acrylic Ice 1 package of 100pcs Silver 3×4 Organza Bag 2 packages for 20 pcs Aluminum Heart Frames / Placecard Holder 2 pcs Large Floating Silver Rose Candles 4 pcs Disposable Wedding Camera 1 pc 9″ Tulle Circles Silver 50 pcs Silver Tulle Roll 6 x 25yds 1 roll Steel Cookie Cutter w/ Gift Box 2 pcs White Velvet Blooming Roses 1 bush for 7 roses Favor Champagne Cups 1 package of 12 cups Silk Silver Rose Petals 1 package of 500 petals

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There are a lot of choices to buy furniture in Singapore. Apart from the usual modern furniture, you can buy ready-made or custom-made rattan and oriental furniture. If you decide to buy Oriental furniture, be aware that their size and design may not be suitable once you are repatriated. A nice antique Chinese bed is not only difficult to transport but may look awkward in your living room at home in London, as nothing else will fit in! Besides, this furniture is made for use in a different climate and may shrink, expand and crack. Also, before shipping back your furniture you should have it fumigated!

Antiques and Reproductions

Before you start, you need to decide if you want to decorate your home, take back some memories or seriously collect specific items as an investment into the future. The term antique is used for a variety of items offered and you need to inform yourself first about the host and home countries’ regulations and custom requirements such as import and export restrictions on religious artifacts (e.g. Buddha statues).

• Educate yourself before you buy.
• Keep detailed receipts of each item, and take photos.
• Buy quality, not quantity.
• Envisage each item in your home country environment and be realistic about size, durability and looks.
• Insure expensive new purchases.

Custom-Made Furniture

To avoid confusion and disappointment, provide a sample or a photograph and specify your requirements in writing:

• Correct dimensions/measurements.
• Type of material to be used.
• Type of frame/material used.
• Type of finish and color.
• Type of foam to be used for padding and cushions.
• Springs to be used (box springs are recommended).
• Fabric of the cushion cover.
• Cording.
• Time of delivery.
• Price, incl. taxes and other costs involved.
• Deposits you made.
• Extra requirements like kiln-dried wood, fumigated etc.
• The support structure should be made of hardwood frames.
• Screws should be used instead of nails or staples.
• Cuts must be concealed.
• Wicker used should be evenly woven and have close fitting joints.
• Cushions should be made out of high-density foam.

Oriental Furniture

There are many different types depending on the country of origin, style or material used. Furniture made in India or Indonesia is often produced in small villages and come with a native touch rather than being in an immaculate condition, which is very exotic. Chinese furniture come in rosewood, camphor, lacquer, coromandel, teak, Elmwood and many other woods and may be antique, a reproduction or modern. Custom-made furniture should be seasoned or kiln-dried to avoid shrinking in a dry environment. To allow the wood to expand furniture should be produced with tongue-and groove- floating panels.

Teak Furniture

The Latin name for Teak is Tectona grandis, which is offered all over Southeast Asia. Teak is an extremely dense, coarse-grained hardwood, which is well known for its durability and resistance to water, the woodworm and many chemical agents. Today, there are teakwood plantations catering to the furniture industry.

When purchasing Teak furniture:

• Buy 100% solid teak. (Not Shorea wood or a combination of both woods.)
• Teak should be made from kiln dried and not green lumber.
• Teak should be plantation grown. Ask for certification.
• Thick pieces of wood used make the product solid and durable.
• Oil finishes will darken the products.
• Plain furniture lightens into a silver gray when left outdoors.

Oriental Carpets

• Before you buy any Turkish, Persian, Chinese, Pakistani, Indian or any other carpets check your own countries custom’s regulations as there may be restrictions on importing them back home.
• Join a class teaching you how to buy a genuine oriental carpet (sometimes offered by dealers.)
• Buy at a reputable dealer and insist on a certification with origin, description, price, date and place of purchase even when you pay cash and keep the receipts at a safe place.
• Try out your carpet at home before purchase and make yourself familiar with the return policy of the dealer.
• Before you bid at a carpet auction, learn the trade!
• Buy pads or rubberized mats (Ikea) together with your carpets to prevent slipping on marble, tile and wooden floors.
• Ask your dealer how to care for your carpet.
• Inquire about after-sales services like cleaning and repair.

Beds and Mattresses

Sizes of beds and mattresses are different form those in Europe, Australia and the US, that may imply difficulties buying suitable bed sheets when in Asia or back home. Some shops offer imported brand name beds in standard lengths but oversized beds are difficult to find. Southeast Asian beds are usually shorter and sometimes narrower. Sometimes mattresses in US sizes can be ordered for an additional charge. Never buy bed sheets or linen unless you have measured your bed before.

Electrical Appliances/Computers/Accessories

• Consider renting, rather than buying, new electrical appliances.
• Go price shopping and bargain.
• Items with local warranties are less expensive and will do if you do not want to take the item back home.
• International warranties are granted for brand names.
• See if repair center lists provided with the product include your home country.
• Have your warranties stamped by the dealer.
• Prices vary according to their origin (where they are manufactured).
• Check about the latest models before buying, as shops like to sell older models first.
• Desktop and notebooks need to have dual voltage power supply (110-220 V).
• All items ideally should have a voltage switch for use in other countries.
• Make sure prices stated include delivery and installation, if necessary.
• Insist on delivery time stated on the receipt.
• Include purchased item into your insurance on return!

Jacqueline Reischel
http://www.articlesbase.com/furniture-articles/how-to-furnish-your-rental-home-in-singapore-681558.html

To figure out where commodities are going, the main questions that need to be answered are: what type of demand will come out of China and where is the US dollar going? Is the Chinese driven commodity boom over? Not over, but expect a significant slowdown. The Chinese government said that exports were down 2.2% in November from a year ago, the first decline in seven years. Imports were down almost 18%. Over the next few months commodity investors will need to closely monitor China’s economy. In terms of the dollar, after an 18% rally from mid September we have seen the dollar fold 6.5% in the last 3 weeks. We are betting that an interim top has been made and we will see a re-visit of the 75 level before we see 90 in the US dollar index. This should bode well for commodities that are priced in dollars. Deeper than that though, weakness in the US dollar should signal a modest stabilization for the global financial system as investors are becoming more willing to take some risks. Investors will remain skittish for months to come, but as the central banks race to zero, investor’s will look for other homes for their capital.

Energies:

February crude oil was up $5.43 or 12%, helped by a weaker dollar and anticipation that OPEC will announce another 1.5-2.0 M cut in production this Wednesday. We see support at $43 with resistance at $51/52. It may be premature to call a bottom, but under the right circumstances; a weakening dollar, stable stock performance and OPEC cuts, we could see a bounce to $65. The US Department of Energy said that crude oil supplies were up 400,000 barrels last week to 320.8 million barrels. Supplies of gasoline were up 3.8 million barrels, more than expected thanks to increased imports. Heating oil supplies were up 1.7 million barrels. February RBOB was 14.22 cents higher last week gaining 14% with a close back above $1.00/gallon. Support is seen at the 9 day moving average at 1.0461 followed by 1.0000 with resistance at 1.2500. To play OPEC or a potential short covering rally look at the January 110/120 call spread for $1400. This is a $4200 spread with only 9 days so you will get quick results, win or lose. Put in a gtc sell order for $3000 and if not filled look to hold until expiration with a break even at approximately 1.1350. A new low was rejected in heating oil with just under a 1 penny gain on the week. $1.50 should serve as the pivot point on the February contract. You could see a move back to the low 140’s or to 1.65. At present we would advise waiting for more evidence on the sidelines for a futures play. We do see a trade back over 2.00 over the next 3 months, traders eager to get exposure could look at the 160/180 call spreads for $2500 or the 170/190 call spread for $2000; both in March.

The US Department of Energy said underground supplies of natural gas were down 67 billion cubic feet last week to 3.291 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now down 1% from a year ago. January natural gas was down 22 cents, pressured by warmer temperatures across the US. This is the lowest price seen since August of 04′ and currently we are long and wrong with clients positioned in February $8 calls. We are still expecting a bounce and will either use a bounce to cut losses or potentially roll the position forward depending on the magnitude of the move. We see support on January between 5.40/5.45 with first resistance at 6.00 but we expect to see a trade up to the 6.25/6.75 level, the question is when and from where?

Currencies:

The BOC met and agreed to reduce its interest rate from 2.25% to 1.50%, the lowest in 50 years. It was the sixth cut this year and 25 basis points more than most were anticipating. Even in the face of this, the Loonie gained 1.69 cents last week largely helped by gains from energies and metals. As we have pointed out in recent posts we expect the triple bottom at 77.00 in March to hold. We suggested long futures and to buy the 82 calls and 78/82 call spread in March for $1500. Look for an exit on options at $2500-3000. For new entries look for a long entry between .7850/.7900.
The March Euro closed up 6.36 cents, the highest close in seven weeks, encouraged by comments from the ECB that the economy may start to recover in the second half of 09′. After a close above the 50 day moving average mid-week we saw strong follow thru to the end of the week. We could see a trade up to 1.36/1.37 but we do not see much more. Support comes in at 1.3285 and then 1.2930 with first resistance at 1.3560.

The Swiss National Bank lowered its interest rate target from 1.00% to .50%. The March Swissie gained 2.87 cents or 3.5% last week. Support has held for the last 4 weeks and we would now be exploring the long side buying dips. Support comes in at the 9 day moving average at .8366 with resistance at .8636. We expect the gap at .8821 from 10/30 to be filled in coming weeks.

The Aussie dollar was 1.65 cents higher last week which was a bit disappointing considering the rally commodity wide. Resistance is seen at last week’s high at .6757 with support at .6460 followed by .6350.

We figure perhaps the Aussie had gotten ahead of itself moving 8.5% higher in the last 3 weeks and may need time to rest. We would be positioned on the sidelines.
For 6 consecutive weeks now the Japanese yen has strengthened against the greenback, gaining 1.94 cents last week and at one point trading as high as 1.1373; the highest level seen since August of 95′. If the carry trade unwind were to continue into 09′ we could see a challenge of 1.25; the highs from 95′. This would be an additional 14% increase on top of the last 4 month gains of 21%. We are currently flat with our retail clients looking for a long opportunity. Our best performing CTA which is up 120% ytd still has exposure and feels we have a way to go. They are positioned in both futures and options; contact us for more details. Support in March is seen at the 9 day moving average at 1.0850 followed by last week’s low at the 50% Fibonacci retracement levels at 1.0687. I would not be surprised to see a sharp pullback to 1.0525, which would do little chart damage. First resistance is seen at 1.1125. Japans’ central bank could cut rates on Friday from 0.3%, but we think they will hold and continue with quantitative easing.

The March pound picked up 2.40 cents last week. 1.4650 should serve as support with mild resistance coming in at 1.5100 and major resistance at 1.5350. We would be positioned on the sidelines expecting a bounce that would set up a good short opportunity.

The Kiwi dollar was only 10 ticks higher and at times was like watching paint dry. We suggest getting long futures with a stop below the previous week’s low at .5164 anticipating a move back over 60 cents in the March contract within the next few months. Patience will need to be exercised because this could be a slow mover. Interest rates after next week should be .50/.75% in the US and 5.0% in New Zealand; you do the math.

The March US dollar index fell 3.62 cents or just over 4.0%, the lowest close in seven weeks, hurt by expectations that the US will likely have to keep interest rates low for a long time. This was the largest weekly move since mid-October. Last week’s low challenged the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement with next support seen at 82.50. Resistance comes in at 85.60 and for now it appears an interim top has been established. We would advise selling rallies while the direction will largely be governed by the FOMC decision on rates, the Fed’s comments and how other markets react.

Metals:

March silver was 73 cents higher last week but remained in the $1.50 trading range we have been in for 8 weeks running. This may sound familiar because I have pointed this out the last few weeks; the significance is that we feel this market is acting like a coiled spring. The longer we see sideways action the larger the breakout; we expect the move to be to the upside. 10.50 still serves as resistance while a weekly close above that level should mean prices are on their way to $13-15. We continue to accumulate the December 09′ $15/20 call spreads and will be a buyer again this week for clients near $1700 if given the opportunity. We would be a buyer of March futures on dips looking for guidance from gold, crude and the dollar. We would start scaling into longs at 9.50 followed by 9.00 and as long as the 8.51 low from 10/28 holds, on a closing basis we like being long. Looking at the weekly charts both the stochastic and MACD still support that we are in the beginning stages of a trend reversal. The silver to gold ratio currently sits roughly at 80:1 and we feel next year it will revert back to at least 50:1. That being said if gold moves to$1000 silver should be at $20.

February gold was higher by $65.30 last week; this move mirrored the previous week’s move of $66.80 just in the opposite direction. This was a seven week high and principally caused by US dollar weakness and investors turning to gold amid financial uncertainty. $750 should continue to act as support with $835 as resistance, a level hit but not penetrated in prior weeks. A close above $835 should propel prices to $865. Although the daily movement shows tremendous volatility, looking at the weekly and monthly charts gives longer term traders cause for excitement. We have seen more notice from investors with an increase in volume and open interest in recent weeks. We have suggested to clients to look at $100 call spreads in April and June; one such idea was the June 800/900 call at $2700. Friday’s settlement was $3670.

To view our full commentary which includes the sectors of energies, livestock, currencies, financials, grains, softs, and metals, subscribe to our 4 week free trial by visiting this link: http://mbwealth.com/subscribe.html.
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To find out exactly how we are positioning our clients in commodity futures and options,
Contact us today at 1-888-920-9997.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Before trading MB Wealth recommends that you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if commodity trading is appropriate for you. All funds committed should be purely risk capital. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results. There are no guarantees of market outcome stated, everything stated above are our opinions. Calculations of profit and loss have not factored in commissions and fees.

Green Faucet
http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/have-commodities-finally-bottomed-689534.html

Two tone gold jewelry is required to enhance your looks and make you appear smart and elegant. If we talk of two tone gold jewelry, we need to remember that we are actually choosing an item which is different from the contemporary designs and styles and is sought after by the young and old alike. Whenever you are out to buy an item which is both unique and authentic, you need to remember that the jewelry has to be long lasting and beautiful. For that, you need to take the following points into consideration.

Always check our two tone gold jewelry before purchase

It is important to realize that whenever you are purchasing two tone gold jewelry or any other item for that matter, you need to physically check it over the counter. A counter check is required to decide whether the jewelry is worth spending money on or not. For example, if you are out to purchase a two tone necklace, make sure you place the item on a flat surface, such as a glass counter and check whether the joints are smoothly interlocked or not. If they are, just go ahead with the purchase but if you find them wavy and uneven, avoid them at all costs.

See if your two tone gold jewelry is clean or dirty

It is very important to check if your two tone gold jewelry is clean or dirty. If it is clean, go right ahead and pick it up but if you see specks of dirt on it, make sure you steer clear of it. It is possible that the jewelry you picked had been handed over from a used source. It may have been used by another person and therefore, it has no authenticity of its own. So while choosing a necklace or a ring, make sure you check its cleanliness and match its glow with related items.

Look for a certification

Whenever you are out purchasing two tone gold jewelry, you need to ensure that you have the right kind of certification in place. Please do not get perturbed by the remark for a certificate of authenticity is always looked on as a means to safeguard your personal rights. You can request the shopkeeper to furnish the required proofs which are necessary to showcase that the jewelry is authentic or not. If he has valid proofs, you can be rest assured about the product and go ahead with the purchase.

Choose an authentic shop or a secured site

If you have to purchase an authentic two tone gold jewelry, you need to visit an authentic shop or a well known showroom. If you have time constraints, you can use the services of the World Wide Web and get your job done. Here, you need to remember that you cannot see the jewelry and have to make do with just a distant glance. So, before making a purchase, make sure you pick an authentic site, which is both safe and secure. Once you have done so, you can go right ahead and make the purchase.

Brenda Ogilvie
http://www.articlesbase.com/art-and-entertainment-articles/how-to-choose-a-good-two-tone-gold-jewelry-684632.html

Home > Categories > First Anniversary > PG-01-079-149 - Nuestro primer aniversario New! - Spanish translation of our popular first anniversary gift for your husband, wife, boyfriend or girlfriend. Personalized with names, date and personal message. Choice of 4 different frames or you can buy it unframed and frame it yourself. Unique first anniversary gift that says “Te quro.” See this First Anniversary poem in English Poem PG-01-079-149 Nuestro primer Aniversario es el tiempo perfecto de decirte lo que tú significas para mí Cómo yo me siento adorada cada vez que tú sonríes o tocas mí mano y, cuando necesito que alguien me escuche, sé que tú me entenderás. Así que Juan, yo celebro este año especial de amarte, agradecida que tenemos felicidad en nuestras vidas que solo pocos disfrutan. Name (Juan) inside verse changes - see question #1 below English translation:   Our 1st Anniversary is the perfect time to tell you what you mean to me. How I depend on you to love me for who I am and believe in me for what I hope to be. How I feel loved each time you smile or touch my hand and, when I need someone to listen, I know you’ll understand. So (Name of person is inserted here) , I celebrate this special year of loving you, grateful that we have the happiness life gives to just a few.   In Solid Oak Frame $59.98 In Silver Metallic Frame $79.98 In Gold Metallic Frame $79.98 In Crystal Frame $129.98 (Samples of horizontal photo areas are shown in the oak and crystal frames above, but any frame can have a vertical, no photo or horizontal photo area) Enter information for your personalized gift below…. here are some sample answers… 3. Top Ribbon Text : Examples: Feliz Primero Aniversario, Riccardo - etc. 4. Bottom Ribbon Text : Example: Te quero, Maria. If you would like the personalization information in Spanish, please type it in Spanish. We do not translate English to

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This 750ML bottle of Herradura Silver NA is a perfect buy for the collector at 28.95.

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LSU Tigers Gold 2-Pack Luggage Spotters - Spot your bag from across the airport terminal with these ingenious team logo Luggage Spotters! They grip around your bag’s carry handle or shoulder strap so that you can go from non-descript to standing out in a crowd in seconds - all without buying new luggage. This two-pack also doubles as luggage tags with a clear window on the inside for your personal contact info!

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If thereâ??s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, itâ??s the one that says: â??Itâ??s always darkest before the dawn.â?

Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months.

But when the dawn does come, it will be one to remember. If U.S. President-elect Barack Obama gets it right - and I have every reason to believe that he will - then investors will be presented with the greatest investment opportunity of our generation. At that point, shares of American companies will be at such low levels that wholesale buying by individuals, mutual funds, pension funds, institutional money managers, and foreign-controlled sovereign wealth funds, will generate gains that will not only make us whole, they will make us rich once again.

A Market Mandela

Creating an analysis of the U.S. economyâ??s outlook for the New Year is akin to creating a mandala, a geometric work of art whose pattern, symbolically or metaphysically, represents a microcosm of the universe from the human perspective. In some Buddhist temples, mandalas are made of tiny colored beads, painstakingly created by several monks as a form of meditation. In celebration of the ever-changing nature of the universe, the mandala is then joyously shaken by its creators, until it is once again nothing more than chaos embodied in a box of colored beads.

Regardless of the big picture, analysis of a mandala - or the economy - always starts at the center and emanates outward. With the U.S. economy, that centerpiece is credit. The credit crisis has shaken the complex mandala that is our economy and transformed the United States economy into chaos. Itâ??s complex because this economic-forecast mandala derived its form from thousands of individual pieces - in the case of the economy, from scores of data points, many of which are currently dark and foreboding.

The credit crisis we are experiencing results from the contraction - or worse, the cessation - of lending. Under normal circumstances, institutions and markets freely facilitate capital movement between lenders and borrowers. But thatâ??s not happening, now.

Because of a lack of transparency into the balance sheets of borrowers holding such complex and illiquid securities as collateralized debt obligations, credit-default swaps, and non-performing loans, and because of increasing recessionary fears affecting businesses and households, lenders donâ??t want to increase their loan exposure. Banks are holding onto the cash and liquid securities they control, using them as a cushion against their own potential losses. The U.S. Treasury Departmentâ??s direct-to-bank capital injections do not alter these banking realities. In fact, as a Money Morning investigative story recently demonstrated, instead of using these taxpayer-provided infusions to increase their lending, these banks are using the money to finance takeover deals.

The Recipe for a Recession

Whether or not the United States is technically in a recession ultimately will be divined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The business-cycle dating committee of this privately run, nonprofit economic research group is right now studying five factors in an attempt to determine if the United States has entered a recession and, if so, when that downturn started, MarketWatch.com reported. Those five factors are:

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
• Industrial production.
• Employment
• Income.
• Retail sales.

Regardless of any formal announcement by the NBER of whether weâ??re in a recession, the credit crisis guarantees a general contraction of economic activity, by every measure.

â??Any doubt that weâ??re officially in a recession can be put aside,â? Anthony Karydakis, former chief U.S. economist for JPMorgan Asset Management (JPM) - and now a professor at New York Universityâ??s Stern School of Business - recently wrote in Fortune magazine. â??The rapid deterioration of labor markets points to a sharp decline in hours worked and output in the fourth quarter. This is likely to lead to a decline in personal consumption to the tune of 5.0% or so for that period. Since [consumer spending] makes up about 70% of the economy, the stage has already been set for real GDP to shrink at a more than 4.0% rate in the fourth quarter.â?

Confirmation of that belief is evident by looking at each of the NBERâ??s five key indicators.

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The U.S. Commerce Department estimated that the U.S. economy, as measured by GDP, rose 0.9% in the first quarter. In the second quarter, GDP advanced an estimated 2.8%. For the third quarter, GDP declined an estimated 0.3%. My own econometric models suggest that GDP actually contracted at a 1.5% pace in the third quarter and will decline another 2.75% in the fourth quarter. For the year, that would mean the U.S. economy actually fell 0.55%. The U.S. economy last posted a full yearâ??s negative GDP in 1991, when it declined 0.2%. Verdict: Recession.
• Industrial Production: This measure of output by the nationâ??s factories and mines dropped 2.8% in September, and a very steep 6.0% in the third quarter. Verdict: Recession.
• Employment: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday that Octoberâ??s unemployment rate was 6.5%, a jump of 0.4%, which was double what most economists expected, and also its highest level in 14 years. The economy has now lost a total of 1.2 million jobs since the beginning of the year, with nearly half of those losses occurring in the last three months alone, pointing to an acceleration in the pace of erosion in labor markets. Karydakis, the Stern School professor, wrote in
  Fortune : â??By way of comparison, during the 2001 recession and in the sluggish growth that followed in 2002-03, the unemployment rate reached a peak of only 6.3%, in June 2003. Weâ??ve already exceeded that mark and, given that we are still in the early phase of the current recession, the unemployment rate should be expected to push toward the 7.5% range - and possibly higher - during the next three months to six months.â?
  Verdict: Recession.
• Income: Personal income increased $24.5 billion, or 0.2%, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $25.7 billion, or 0.2%, in September. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $33.6 billion, or 0.3%. Excluding the rebate payments made to U.S. taxpayers under the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, DPI increased $30.3 billion, or 0.3%, in September, and increased $44.0 billion, or 0.4%, in August. Verdict: Too close to call.
• Retail Sales: October retail sales are coming in well below already-diminished expectations, and some reports have been downright depressing - including The Neiman Marcus Group Inc. -26.8%; The Gap Inc. (GPS) -16%; The Nordstrom Group (JWN) -15.7%; J.C. Penny Co. Inc. (JCP) -13%; Kohlâ??s Corp. (KSS) -9%; Ltd. Brands Inc. (LTD) -9%; Target Corp. Inc. (TGT) -4.8%; and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) +2.4%. In a report last week, Moodyâ??s Investors Service (MCO) projected that the retail sectorâ??s woes will continue into 2009 as consumers cut back on buying apparel, footwear and accessories â??in order to save money for essentials.â? The credit rating firm said in a separate report that holiday spending â??will prove even weaker than expected,â? amid Octoberâ??s financial-market swoon. Verdict: Recession.

If U.S. exports are taken out of the GDP calculations going back to January, itâ??s apparent that there has been very little domestic growth in the economy. And when revisions are finalized in the next few months, weâ??ll be looking back at the recession that weâ??re all but certain is upon us right now. Until the credit markets are freed up and borrowers are extended credit at reasonable rates, itâ??s unlikely that credit, the centerpiece of the economy, will be anything other than a major cog in the wheel.

There are some signs of a thaw, but not anytime soon. The U.S. Federal Reserveâ??s lowering of the Fed Funds target rate to 1.0%, and coordinated rate reductions by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, as well as other major world-wide central banks, may start to ease the stranglehold gripping the worldwide credit markets. The London interbank offered rate (Libor), a critical interest rate against which trillions of dollars of mortgages, bank loans and derivatives are priced, dropped to 2.39% last week from a high of 4.82% on Oct. 10.

The prospect of President-elect Obamaâ??s choosing a different means of attacking the credit crisis will be closely watched and, by itself, may create an air of confidence that perceptions will change. But changed perceptions will not be enough.
The truth about our economic outlook is that it is predicated on demonstrably better transparency. If U.S. banks follow the lead of their European counterparts, which have recently been freed from fair-value, mark-to-market accounting, and which may retroactively mark assets to â??internal modelsâ? back to July, then balance-sheet clarity will continue to be cloaked in darkness. Lack of confidence in the banking system will persist, especially among the banks themselves. The first order of attack needs to be the creation of a fundamental leadership position that leads to an open, transparent and accountable measure of balance sheet assets and liabilities. As long as failing banks are being propped up, this cycle of credit contraction will persist.

The outlook for the economy is inextricably tied to the price of oil. The run-up of benchmark crude this summer to the record $145 a barrel level, and its subsequent fall to half that level, has wreaked havoc throughout the economy. Similarly, the run-up in commodity prices, and their subsequent fall, also has caused a lot of damage. Together, the dramatic rise and fall in the pricde of oil and other commodities is a harbinger of greater volatility in the future.

Follow the Money

Follow the money. Capital rapidly inflated the tech-stock bubble. When that bubble burst, capital flowed into and flooded the hard-asset world of real estate. When that bubble burst fast, speculative money dove into oil and commodities. When the U.S. and world economies looked weak, those bubbles burst. The looming threat of inflation this past summer instantly gave way after the drop of oil, gold, metals and agricultural commodities. And now, deflation is seen as the looming threat on the horizon.

Which threat should we worry about?

The answer is - both. The prospect for near-term deflation seems all too real. As raw material prices fall and finished good prices fall due to a lack of purchasing power resulting from lack of credit and world-wide recessionary fears, the U.S. consumer has fundamentally changed his or her collective psychology. Is U.S. consumerism, which is responsible for 70% of GDP, in full retreat? If it is, as all measures project, then itâ??s likely that government stimulus efforts will overshoot their intended mark.
Just look at what the United States has done already as it battles this financial crisis. It has:

• Handed out more than $150 billion in stimulus rebate checks.
• Floated a $700 billion financial bailout rescue plan - almost $160 billion of which has already been placed.
• Bailed out American International Group Inc. (AIG), to the tune of $125 billion.
• Covered JP Morgan Chase & Co.â??s bet on taking over
  The Bear Stearns Cos. - to the tune of $29 billion.
• Looked to lend struggling automakers $25 billion.
• Agreed to guarantee depositors at all banks.
• Stepped in to buy commercial paper that no one else will buy.
• Guaranteed money-market-fund investors.
• And backstopped the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).

And now weâ??re getting wind of another stimulus package and more help for everyone.

If, in six months to a year, the credit markets are facilitating borrowers again, the massive buildup of U.S. debt will result in a falling dollar and higher interest rates.

That spells inflation.

A massive re-inflation of the economy portends another flood of speculative money into oil and commodities. The cycles are increasingly condensed, more volatile and will be increasingly more disruptive.

Welcome to the brave new world of global finance and speculation.

The Federal Reserveâ??s balance sheet has ballooned from $900 billion to more than $1.8 trillion. Thatâ??s 13% of GDP. The Treasury Department has telegraphed its intention to float $550 billion of debt in the fourth quarter and estimates it will have to float another $368 billion in the first quarter of 2009. Our national debt will then be close to 49% of GDP.

If there is an easing of credit in the economy, and borrowers come to market with the pent-up demand that has not been met for the past year, the competition for funds will raise interest rates. Higher interest rates will counter any stimulus effect from government programs.

Who will buy U.S. Treasury debt if the world is less apprehensive about credit quality? Lenders will once again seek higher returns, potentially forcing the Treasury Department to increase its rates. The potential of this event may sink the dollar if investors perceive that the U.S. economy is stagnant and the world is awash in dollars. The yield curve - the spread between the Treasuryâ??s two-year and the 10-year paper - has been steepening. A steepening yield curve, where short-term borrowing costs are low and long-term rates considerably higher, is good for banks that borrow short and lend long.

But if the perception of risk diminishes, and the perception of future inflation increases, the yield curve will invert and the threat of rising rates will cause a sell-off in the short end of the curve and a rush into longer-dated maturities. Any increase in short-term interest rates would be painful for struggling banks. An inverted yield curve would be devastating, and inevitably would lead to more bank failures.

Home on the Range â?¦

At the core of the U.S. economy sits a desperately ailing piece of the mandala - the U.S. housing market. The once bright prospect of home ownership, which historically formed a beautiful economic picture, right now doesnâ??t exist. For most Americans, the family home constituted the bulk of their wealth. Or at least it did. And this family financial portrait will get worse before it gets better, since the real estate collapse is far from over. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), for instance, projects another 15% drop in housing prices.

I think thatâ??s conservative. Mortgage rates are actually rising as Fannie and Freddie have to pay higher interest on their short-term notes and bonds. Thirty-year fixed-rate mortgage paper averaged 6.47% last week, up from its 52-week low of 5.36%. The 15-year fixed paper was trading at 6.18%, up from its 52-week low of 4.91% (based on Bankrate.com (RATE) rate surveys). This trend is definitely not our friend. As housing prices continue to fall, and inventories stagnate and grow in many areas, homeowners are increasingly underwater and are increasingly entertaining foreclosure as a viable economic alternative to indentured servitude.
The Hope for Homeowners Plan, which looks to lower interest rates and reduce principal on mortgages, and which makes homeowners pay a share of the appreciation on their home to their lender when they sell it, was initiated in October and was expected to garner some 400,000 takers. As of last week, according to The Wall Street Journal, there had been only 42 takers. Thatâ??s not a misprint - 42 - I even checked with The Journal.

In the real estate realm, the proverbial â??other shoeâ? hasnâ??t dropped yet, but certainly is dangling - and thatâ??s commercial real estate. As homeowners writhe in agony and stop spending, retailers will go out of business, businesses of all stripes will suffer and commercial real estate will implode. The leverage left over from just the private equity foray into commercial real estate in the acquisitive 2006-2007 period is staggering. Refinancing will be impossible. Banks are stuck with hundreds of billions of dollars of leveraged loans that they took on as bridge and mezzanine financing from the private-equity shops alone, at the time believing they would be able to securitize those loans and sell them off to investors.

Thereâ??s no chance of that, now.

One deal in particular illustrates this entire mess. Private equity behemoth The Blackstone Group LP (BX) took Hilton Hotels Corp. private for $26 billion. Blackstone put up $6 billion of its own money as equity and borrowed the other $20 billion from Bear Stearns, Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Deutsche Bank AG (DB), Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley (MS), Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER) and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (OTC: LEHMQ).

Based on a current analysis of the deal at the multiple of seven times projected cash flow that the market currently puts on Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (HOT) - Hiltonâ??s nearest rival - if Blackstone values its property comparably, it will have to mark its Hilton holdings down 50%, because it paid 13 times projected cash flow. That wipes out all of Blackstoneâ??s equity in the deal. Whatâ??s more, the $4 billion portion of the loan that Bear Stearns took on, courtesy of JP Morgan Chase casting off Bearâ??s orphaned liabilities, now sits on the Fedâ??s balance sheet - and isnâ??t likely to go anywhere anytime soon.

Until the real estate cycle completes its implosion and begins to stabilize, thereâ??s nothing that will fundamentally alter the outlook for the economy. This is Ground Zero. President-elect Obama must resist creating only a political solution to the overwhelming economic problem of declining house prices and declining real estate prices in general. Any attempt to put a band aid on this economic plague will only delay the day of reckoning. I regret deeply the conclusion that the lake must be drained before we can realistically climb out of it. But there just arenâ??t enough ferrymen to get us all to shore.

Always a Silver Lining - My Forecast

The outlook for the economy is not rosy - and thatâ??s an understatement. But there is a silver lining. Even in the near term, the stock market will present innumerable wealth-creation opportunities.

• First, there are plenty of shorting opportunities out there now, and more will present themselves in the future.
• Second, in due course - in perhaps 12-18 months - we will be presented with the investment opportunity of our generation. If President-elect Obama gets it right, and I believe heâ??s got the potential to bring us all together and get the country through this (and if youâ??re reading this Mr. President-elect, Iâ??d like to put in my vote for [New York Fed President] Timothy Geithner as next U.S. treasury secretary), American companies will be able to be purchased so cheaply that fortunes will be made. The recovery will not only make us whole, it will make our people and our nation rich again.

I have absolutely no doubt that the United States will lead the world back into balance. The sea change that has arrived is the result of the conservative experiment having lost its true moorings, pushing the economy into disaster. Not that a wholesale swinging of the pendulum to the other side would be good. In fact, it would be disastrous. We have the potential to end up with a new, fair, transparent and judiciously regulated environment where capital formation can again spread its wings and the U.S. economy can fly.

There are new hands reaching into the colorful box of beads that comprise the American landscape and economy. From any human perspective, the United States is more than a microcosm of the universe; it is the center of the world as we know it. It will take time to construct the new mandala. We all need to meditate on the process to ensure that the design we embrace will ultimately be inclusive, forward-looking and - like all great art - an inspiration to all who view it.

[Editorâ??s Note: Contributing Editor R. Shah Gilani has toiled in the trading pits in Chicago, run trading desks in New York, operated as a broker/dealer and managed everything from hedge funds to currency accounts. In his recent investigation of the U.S. credit crisis, Gilani was able to provide insider insights that no other financial writer or commentator could hope to match. He drew upon the experiences and network of contacts that he developed through the years to provide Money Morning readers with the “real story” of the credit crisis - and to propose an alternate plan of action. Itâ??s a perspective on the near-financial meltdown that more than a quarter-million readers have read in Money Morning alone - to say nothing of the hundreds of other Internet outlets worldwide that have picked up and published Gilaniâ??s unique insights.

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